Updated 9th April 2022

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COVID is trending down

Written byZOE Editorial Staff

    According to the ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey figures, there are currently, 53,528 daily new symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average, based on swab tests data from up to five days ago [*]. This compares to 69,958 daily new symptomatic cases a week ago, a decrease of 23%. 

    Other key findings from ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey this week: 

    • The UK R value is 0.9

    • Regional R values are: England, 0.9. Wales, 0.9. Scotland, 1.0. (full table below) 

    • In England and Wales, cases are slowly starting to fall.

    • In Scotland, where there is an R value of 1.0, cases haven’t started to fall yet but they are no longer rising. 

    • Cases in London are trending down with a R value of 0.8, however, it is still currently the highest risk place in the UK with 1 in 44 active cases. 

    • Redbridge, Enfield and Greenwich are the worst affected areas. City of London, Hammersmith and Kingston upon Thames are the least (see a map and a graph of London below) 

    • The safest places in the UK are currently, Herefordshire, Lincolnshire and Devon

    • The highest risk places in the UK are currently, London, Essex Thurrock & Southend and Bedfordshire and Milton Keynes (full tables of results below)

    • Cases have plateaued in most of the age groups, which is good news for over 60s who are linked to hospital admissions. (see graph below)

    • App users have reported over 100,000 vaccinations already and we are monitoring their effects daily.

    The ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey figures are based on around one million weekly reporters and the proportion of newly symptomatic users who have positive swab tests. The latest survey figures were based on data from 20,539 recent swab tests done between 26 December to 10 January 2021.

    Tim Spector OBE, lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Symptom Study app and Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King’s College London, comments on the latest data:

    “It's great to see case numbers falling in most regions but numbers are still worryingly high and hospitals will stay under pressure for some time yet. With such high numbers and growing evidence new strains are highly transmissible, things can still take a turn for the worse. We need numbers to keep falling before we make any changes to current restrictions.”

    Worst affected region in England:

    The least affected regions in England:

    Incidence / Daily new symptomatic cases regional breakdown [*]

    The ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey results over time for the UK

    Table of R Values

    Map of UK prevalence figures

    Borough-level Prevalence map of London

    Borough-level prevalence rates in London

    Estimated rate of people with Symptomatic COVID across age groups